What to do with Luongo

This recent groin injury to Luongo could not have come at a better time for the Canucks and Mike Gillis. The season is still young, none of their NorthWest rivals are playing that well, the rest of the team is playing well and can support a weaker goalie and it gives a chance to see what the other goalies can do… because not to ring alarm bells but Luongo’s contract expires after next year and some major decisions will need to be taken with this team who has never won the Stanley Cup since inception in 1970.


Luongo so far

_____GP__ MIN___ W___ L___ GAA___ SV%____ SO
06-07_ 76___ 4490 ___47 ___22___ 2.28 ____.921 _____5
07-08_ 73___ 4233 ___35 ___29 ___2.38 ____.917 _____6
08-09_ 19___ 1076 ___11____ 5 ____2.17____ .928 ____ 5

Luongo has been as good as advertised in his 2 ½ years in Vancouver so far. He has played 90% of the team’s games with a save percentage around 920. The whole team outlook has changed and there is a definite swagger with such a stalwart behind them. He makes the big saves, challenges the shooters and control things near his goal. Even though it took time for the team to announce it, there was very little hesitation in that locker room about who was the captain of this team.

07-08 was a more difficult season as backend injuries and the easing in of many rookies (Edler, Raymond, Hansen among others) were coupled with a difficult pregnancy for Luongo’s wife which seemed to affect his play in the middle of the season. Of course, the whole makeup of the team was being changed too as Naslund & Morrison were being phased out due to declining play and desire to focus the team on the Sedins and strong, responsible defensive play.

Trading away locker-room cancer and overall troubled person Bertuzzi was already a plus for this team but obtaining an elite goaltender in return makes the trade one of the most lop-sided of the decade.


Schneider’s play

I focused my attention particularly on Schneider’s play during Sunday’s game versus Colorado and while a 4-3 shootout loss might not look like a great goalie performance, the kid did manage to play a very good game. What I mean by good game is that he made saves, kept his team in the game and the goals allowed were redirects he could not do much on… but his style is definitely not my cup of tea! He is a crouched butterfly guy: constantly down on his knees: the pads spread wide, bent over with his arms resting on his pads. I do not know if it was due to nervousness but he spent most of the night down, regardless of how imminent the danger was. From the way he made stops and moved around, I don’t think it was nervousness, I think that is his style… a style I am not sure he can succeed with in the NHL unless he has the quickest hands! Once he goes for his second tour across the league and teams start to know him, how will he handle teams constantly shooting high to avoid his pads? He made some nice saves during the game but it always seemed more reflex than positioning… and he looked seriously outmatched in the shootout as all 3 Avalanche guys beat him high stick side. I tried to look at it dispassionately and regardless of my aversion for goalies going down too early but I still do not see #1 nhl talent unless a top notch goaltending coach spends some heavy time with him to improve his style. You can get by in US College and the American league mainly on reflexes but in the NHL, with any good shooter able to lift the puck at will in any situation, it will become a glaring weakness easily exploited.


The view from Gillis’ office

While the recent groin injury was self-inflicted on a quite innocuous play, there is very little indication that the 29 year old goalkeeper will break down anytime soon and he should continue to be among the top 3 for the remainder of his contract which runs until summer 2010. With a cap hit of 6.75 but actual salary of 7mil this year and 7.5 next year, Luongo does not come cheap but is still a good deal for what he brings. His next contract will probably bring him even more money when you consider the state of many teams’ goaltending and the very rare goalies even reaching free agency. It wouldn’t be impossible to see 8.5 a year for a 31 year old goaltender in his prime.

What is the GM to do then? Luongo drove a hard bargain after the trade as he knew Nonis had no choice but to sign him long term and he seems to hold all the cards this time around too: A town crazy for him, a team built around him, performance good enough to carry a team and good examples that the team goes in the tank everytime he gets injured.

Can Gillis even afford to let Luongo go? Can he afford to approach the summer of 2010 with Luongo unsigned? Trading Luongo before he reaches Free Agency would bring a boatload of talent but what then? Is it back to the early 90s with a good offense and no goalie? Will this town even accept a trade of Luongo when the team had 10M of cap space unspent this year?

What will Luongo see as 2010 approach? Will he see the Canucks as a somewhat better Panthers squad still too crappy to get him to the Cup? Even though the team seems to have been extremely accommodating during the birth of his child last year, how will he view things… how will he view their actions in regard to his wife and child maybe in danger and in hospital?

Things look pretty clear from Gillis point of view: he must resign Luongo next summer before he even sniffs Free Agency and find a good trade partner on which to dump his touted prospect with great minor stats but lack of major league technique. Rebuilding this team makes sense everywhere except in goal.